Interview with Financial Sense on Running for Political Office and the Macro Outlook for 2020

I was interviewed by Cris Sheridan of Financial Sense on December 17th.

This was a two-part interview; in the first half, I discuss my current run for political office and the challenges facing small cities; in the second half, I discuss the macro and equity outlook for 2020. If you want to skip around, here are some guideposts:

• 2 minute mark: my reasons for running for political office
• 11 minute mark: the challenges facing small towns like ours in the next decade
• 24 minute mark: the US macro outlook for 2020, with a focus on housing and other leading indicators
• 32 minute mark: what macro and things like investor sentiment mean for the stock market in the coming year

My thanks to Cris for the opportunity to speak with him and to his editor for making these disparate thoughts seem cogent.

Listen here.

If you find this post to be valuable, consider visiting a few of our sponsors who have offers that might be relevant to you.

High Consumer Confidence Is A Notable Stock Market Warning

Summary:  In July, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) jumped to its highest level since last September, right before stocks started a 20% correction. Sometimes a high in the CCI coincides closely with a 5% or greater fall in stocks, but at other times the lag has been many months. In general, however, the risk/reward for investors over the next 6 months has not be favorable.

* * *

In July, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) jumped to the highest level since last September. According to the Conference Board: “Consumers are once again optimistic about current and prospective business and labor market conditions. In addition, their expectations regarding their financial outlook also improved."

The CCI was created in 1967, based on a monthly survey of 5,000 households. The report gives details about consumer attitudes (how would you rate the current business and employment situation; do you think your income will be higher or lower in 6 months) and buying intentions.

Increasing confidence is generally good for the economy as it drives consumption, which is 70% of the US economy.

But excessive confidence is not good, especially for the stock market. The timing is far from perfect but risk/reward and forward returns are often poor.

The current CCI is now 136. It has been higher in only 3 other periods: the late 1960s, the late 1990s and last year (the next 4 charts are from Sentimentrader; to become a subscriber and support the Fat Pitch, click here). Enlarge any chart by clicking on it.

An Extreme In Investor Fear And Pessimism

Summary:  Fund flows out of equities and into the safety of bonds is the most extreme in more than 15 years. Retail investor bearishness is consistent with that at Christmas, early 2016 and other durable lows in equities.

Fund managers surveyed by BAML are similarly pessimistic. Their cash allocation is one of the highest in 16 years. Their equity allocation is the lowest since the bear market bottom in March 2009. And their allocation to bonds is near an 8-year high.

All of this suggests a continued upside tailwind for equities and a strong headwind for bonds. Could investors, especially fund managers, be right this time? Of course, but it's not likely. The last bear market started with strong equity inflows and bond outflows. Cash levels were relatively low. All of this is the reverse now. 

The US dollar is considered the most overvalued in 16 years, a possible tailwind for US multi-nationals and ex-US equities.

* * *

By most accounts, the fall in equities in May was exacerbated by investor fear. That fear does not appear to have dissipated with the rise in equities so far in June.

Let's review several recent studies of sentiment.

First, a study from Bernstein shows that flows out of equities and into bonds so far in 2019 is the most extreme in more than 15 years. Enlarge any image by clicking on it.

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - May

Summary:  Although fund managers are less bearish than they were at the start of 2019, they are far from being bullish.  They are overweight cash. Their global equity allocations are almost a standard deviation below the mean. Their bond allocations are at a 7-year high. A slight majority expect profits to contract and economic growth to fall in the next year.

This is a far cry from 2018, when fund managers came into the year with cash levels at 4-year lows and allocations to global equities at 3-year highs. Global equities ended the year 15% lower.

US and European equity allocations remain low relative to levels seen at prior market peaks. Emerging markets are the consensus long. The US dollar is considered the most overvalued in 16 years, a possible tailwind for US multi-nationals and ex-US equities.

* * *

Among the various ways of measuring investor sentiment, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) survey of global fund managers is one of the best, as the results reflect how managers are allocated in various asset classes. These managers oversee a combined $600b in assets.

Our sincere gratitude to BAML for the use of this data.

The data should be viewed mostly from a contrarian perspective; that is, when equities fall in price, allocations to cash go higher and allocations to equities go lower as investors become bearish, setting up a buy signal. When prices rise, the opposite occurs, setting up a sell signal. We did a recap of this pattern in December 2014 (post).

Let's review the highlights from the past month.

Overall: Relative to history, fund managers are overweight cash and underweight equities. Enlarge any image by clicking on it.

Within equities, the emerging markets are overweight while Europe, in particular, is underweight. The US is close to neutral.

A pure contrarian would overweight equities relative to cash and bonds, and European equities relative to emerging markets. 

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - February

Summary: Fund managers came into 2018 very bullish, with cash levels at 4-year lows and allocations to global equities at 3-year highs. Global equities ended the year 15% lower.

Since Christmas, global equities have rebounded 10%. How have fund managers responded?

In most respects, fund managers remain very bearish:

They are overweight cash by the highest amount since January 2009, the month before the bear market low.

Their global equity allocations are now the lowest in 2-1/2 years. This is a bearish extreme, similar to 2010 and 2016. 

Their profit expectations are the most bearish in 10 years, and below levels which marked equity lows in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2016. 

Their global macro growth expectations are the most pessimistic in 10 years, more than at the major equity bottoms in 2011 and 2016.  

They view the US dollar as the most overvalued in 16 years, which has a very good track record of marking a turn to dollar weakness, a tailwind for US multi-nationals as well as ex-US equities.

Their global bond allocations are the highest since the Brexit vote in June 2016,  

US equity allocations are at a 9 month low. European equity allocations are coming off a 6-1/2 year low in January. Emerging markets have become the consensus long.

* * *

Among the various ways of measuring investor sentiment, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) survey of global fund managers is one of the best as the results reflect how managers are allocated in various asset classes. These managers oversee a combined $600b in assets.

Our sincere gratitude to BAML for the use of this data.

The data should be viewed mostly from a contrarian perspective; that is, when equities fall in price, allocations to cash go higher and allocations to equities go lower as investors become bearish, setting up a buy signal. When prices rise, the opposite occurs, setting up a sell signal. We did a recap of this pattern in December 2014 (post).

Let's review the highlights from the past month.

Overall: Relative to history, fund managers are very overweight cash and very underweight equities. Enlarge any image by clicking on it.

Within equities, the emerging markets are overweight while Europe, in particular, is underweight. The US is neutral.

A pure contrarian would overweight equities relative to cash, and European equities relative to emerging markets. 

Interview With Financial Sense on Macro Risks and The Market Correction

We were interviewed by Cris Sheridan of Financial Sense on November 12th. During the interview we discuss the macro-economic environment, specific risks that are unfolding and current market technicals as stocks suffer their second correction in 2018. One theme of our discussion is what to look for over the next several months.

Our thanks to Cris for the opportunity to speak with him and to his editor for making these disparate thoughts seem cogent.

Listen here.

If you find this post to be valuable, consider visiting a few of our sponsors who have offers that might be relevant to you.

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - November

Summary: Although US equities are up about 2% in 2018, Europe is down 10% and emerging markets are down more than 15%. Part of the reason: fund managers came into 2018 very bullish, with cash levels at 4-year lows and allocations to global equities at 3-year highs.

How have fund managers responded to an increasingly tough environment for equities?

In one respect, they are still bullish: global equity allocations are still 31% overweight. Into the major lows in 2011, 2012 and 2016, fund managers were underweight. Allocations could easily fall much further before global equities reach a bottom.

But in most other respects, fund managers are already very bearish:

They are overweight cash (by nearly one standard deviation), which is typically a tailwind for equities.

They view the US dollar as the most overvalued in 12 years, which has a very good track record of marking a turn to dollar weakness, a tailwind for US multi-nationals as well as ex-US equities.

Their profit expectations are the most bearish in 6 years, and at a level which also marked equity lows in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2016. 

Their global macro growth expectations are the most pessimistic in 10 years, more than at the major equity bottoms in 2011 and 2016.  

A third believe the world's largest equity benchmark, the S&P 500, has already peaked. This number holding this view has doubled in just one month.

They believe 'value' will outperform 'growth' stocks; similar peaks (in 2009, 2014, 2016 and 2017) marked excellent times to be long equities, especially growth stocks. 

  

The US is the most favored region in the world. That's not surprising: during a global equity sell off, the US is usually regarded as the safest haven. It should underperform. Europe is the most hated region and is likely to outperform.

* * *

Among the various ways of measuring investor sentiment, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) survey of global fund managers is one of the best as the results reflect how managers are allocated in various asset classes. These managers oversee a combined $600b in assets.

Our sincere gratitude to BAML for the use of this data.

The data should be viewed mostly from a contrarian perspective; that is, when equities fall in price, allocations to cash go higher and allocations to equities go lower as investors become bearish, setting up a buy signal. When prices rise, the opposite occurs, setting up a sell signal. We did a recap of this pattern in December 2014 (post).

Let's review the highlights from the past month.

Overall: Relative to history, fund managers are overweight cash and neutral equities. Enlarge any image by clicking on it.

Within equities, the US is overweight while Europe, in particular, is underweight. This is a significant change from the past year.

A pure contrarian would overweight European equities relative to the US and underweight cash. 

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - September

Summary: Fund managers came into 2018 very bullish, with cash levels at 4-year lows and allocations to global equities at 3-year highs.

9 months later, global equity allocations are nearly the lowest since November 2016. Moreover, cash balances are high. Globally, investors are relatively bearish. How can this be?

The reason is mostly outside of the US. While US equities are at all-time highs, both European and emerging markets are down in 2018. That has impacted investors' regional allocations in an important way.

After being out of favor for 17 months, fund managers are now overweight US equities by the most since January 2015. It's at an extreme, and the US should underperform.

Fund managers are now underweight emerging market equities by the most in 2-1/2 years; the region is now a contrarian long.  Europe is neutral, as are global bonds.

* * *

Among the various ways of measuring investor sentiment, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) survey of global fund managers is one of the best as the results reflect how managers are allocated in various asset classes. These managers oversee a combined $600b in assets.

Our sincere gratitude to BAML for the use of this data.

The data should be viewed mostly from a contrarian perspective; that is, when equities fall in price, allocations to cash go higher and allocations to equities go lower as investors become bearish, setting up a buy signal. When prices rise, the opposite occurs, setting up a sell signal. We did a recap of this pattern in December 2014 (post).

Let's review the highlights from the past month.

Overall: Relative to history, fund managers are overweight cash and underweight equities. Enlarge any image by clicking on it.

Within equities, the US is overweight while emerging markets in particular are underweight. This is a significant change from the past year.

A pure contrarian would overweight emerging markets equities relative to the US and underweight cash. 

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - July

Summary: Fund managers came into 2018 very bullish equities, with cash levels at 4-year lows and allocations to global equities at 3-year highs. Our view at the time was that "this is a headwind to further gains" in equities. That post is here.

7 months later, global equity allocations have fallen to the lowest level since the November 2016 election, and cash balances are relatively high. Investors are no longer bullish, although the global equity correction has not made them outright bearish by most measures.

The US has been the best performing region of the world in the past year, yet fund managers have been consistently underweight. That has now changed; in July, US allocations rose to a 17-month high. It's not yet extreme, but a big tailwind behind US outperformance is now gone.

Emerging markets have massively underperformed since April when allocations to the region rose to a 7-year high. In July, allocations fell to the lowest since January 2017. This region is now a modest contrarian long again.

Fund managers' are close to neutral on bonds, but their inflation expectations remain near a 14-year high and their commodity allocations are near an 8-year high. This has previously led US 10-year yields to stagnate or fall.

* * *

Among the various ways of measuring investor sentiment, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) survey of global fund managers is one of the best as the results reflect how managers are allocated in various asset classes. These managers oversee a combined $600b in assets.

Our sincere gratitude to BAML for the use of this data.

The data should be viewed mostly from a contrarian perspective; that is, when equities fall in price, allocations to cash go higher and allocations to equities go lower as investors become bearish, setting up a buy signal. When prices rise, the opposite occurs, setting up a sell signal. We did a recap of this pattern in December 2014 (post).

Let's review the highlights from the past month.

Overall: Relative to history, fund managers are overweight cash and commodities, underweight equities. Enlarge any image by clicking on it.

Within equities, the US is now overweight while emerging markets in particular are now underweight. This is a significant change from the past year.

A pure contrarian would overweight emerging markets equities relative to the US and underweight cash. 

The Money Gods' Price For Achieving High Returns

Summary:  During their lifetime, most investors will likely endure another decade-long bear market like the ones in the 1970's and 2000's. Younger investors will probably suffer through at least two.

When thinking about the last 20 years, investors easily recall the tech bubble, the financial crisis and the flash crash in 2010 that together form the most recent lost decade for equities. These negative events dominate our decision making. The (more important) 300% return from equities during this time does not.

For all the time spent worrying about bear market risks, the overwhelming majority of short term traders and professional fund managers haven't found a way to avoid it. And if they have, it has been at the expense of also missing out on the gains during bull markets.

If you are going to do better than most, it won't be by continually anticipating a market crash. That has invariably been an exit ramp onto a dead end street. Tuning out noise and consistently following investment rules and hard data is far more challenging than it sounds, but the performance of those that who do it can be in the top 5%, maybe the top 1%.

* * *

If you are in your 40's or 50's, you will probably endure another lost decade like the 2000's, where stocks did not appreciate on a net basis. If you are in your 20's or 30's, there's a good chance you will endure at least two such periods in your lifetime.

The future could turn out different than the past, but the pattern over the past 120 years is that expansions alternate with long periods where equity markets churn sideways. That's true even if you include dividends and assume dollar-cost averaging (DCA). The chart below shows the length of time US equities have spent getting back to breakeven from a peak (from Lance Roberts; read his recommended article here). Enlarge any chart by clicking on it.

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - May

Summary: Fund managers came into 2018 very bullish equities. Cash levels had fallen to the lowest level in 4 years. Allocations to global equities had risen to the highest level in nearly 3 years. Bond allocations were at a 4 year low. Our view at the time was that "this is a headwind to further gains" in equities. That post is here.

Since then, global equity allocations have fallen and cash balances have risen. Investors are no longer at a bullish extreme, although the equity correction has not (yet) made them outright fearful.

In the past 9 months, US equities have outperformed Europe by 6% and the rest the world by 5%. Despite this, fund managers remain underweight the US. US equities should continue to outperform their global peers on a relative basis.

Fund managers' inflation expectations are near a 14 year high; in the past, this has corresponded with a fall in US 10 year yields in the months ahead. Commodity allocations are at a 6 year high.

* * *

Among the various ways of measuring investor sentiment, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) survey of global fund managers is one of the better as the results reflect how managers are allocated in various asset classes. These managers oversee a combined $600b in assets. Our sincere gratitude to BAML for the use of this data.

The data should be viewed mostly from a contrarian perspective; that is, when equities fall in price, allocations to cash go higher and allocations to equities go lower as investors become bearish, setting up a buy signal. When prices rise, the opposite occurs, setting up a sell signal. We did a recap of this pattern in December 2014 (post).

Let's review the highlights from the past month.

Overall: Relative to history, fund managers are overweight cash and commodities, underweight bonds and neutral equities. Enlarge any image by clicking on it.

Within equities, the US is significantly underweight while Europe, Japan and emerging markets are all overweight. 

A pure contrarian would overweight US equities relative to Europe and emerging markets and underweight cash. 

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - March

Summary: Fund managers came into 2018 very bullish equities. Cash levels had fallen to the lowest level in 4 years. Allocations to global equities had risen to the highest level in nearly 3 years. Bond allocations were at a 4 year low. Our view at the time was that "this is a headwind to further gains" in equities. That post is here.

Since then, global equity allocations have fallen and cash balances have risen. Investors are no longer at a bullish extreme, but the equity shakeout certainly did not make them fearful.

In the past 8 months, US equities have outperformed Europe by 13% and the rest the world by 5%. Despite this, fund managers remain underweight the US. US equities should outperform their global peers on a relative basis.

Fund managers remain underweight global bonds by the greatest extent in 4 years. US 10 year treasuries have outperformed US equities (NYSE) by nearly 400bp in the past two months.

* * *

Among the various ways of measuring investor sentiment, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) survey of global fund managers is one of the better as the results reflect how managers are allocated in various asset classes. These managers oversee a combined $600b in assets. Our sincere gratitude to BAML for the use of this data.

The data should be viewed mostly from a contrarian perspective; that is, when equities fall in price, allocations to cash go higher and allocations to equities go lower as investors become bearish, setting up a buy signal. When prices rise, the opposite occurs, setting up a sell signal. We did a recap of this pattern in December 2014 (post).

Let's review the highlights from the past month.

Overall: Relative to history, fund managers are overweight equities and cash and underweight bonds. Enlarge any image by clicking on it.

Within equities, the US is significantly underweight while Europe, Japan and emerging markets are all significantly overweight. 

A pure contrarian would overweight US equities relative to Europe, Japan and emerging markets, and overweight global bonds relative to a 60-30-10 basket. 

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - January

Summary: Global equities rose 22% in 2017. Throughout almost that entire period, fund managers held significant amounts of cash and were, at best, only modestly bullish on equities. All of this suggested lingering risk aversion following a recession scare in 2016.

As 2018 begins, cash levels have fallen to the lowest level in 4 years. Allocations to global equities have risen to the highest level in nearly 3 years. In most respects, investors are now bullish.

In the past 6 months, US equities have outperformed Europe by 12% and the rest the world by 2%. Despite this, fund managers remain underweight the US. US equities should outperform their global peers.

Fund managers are underweight global bonds by the greatest extent in 4 years. Only 4% of fund managers believe global rates will be lower next year, a level at which yields have often fallen, at least temporarily.

* * *

Among the various ways of measuring investor sentiment, the BAML survey of global fund managers is one of the better as the results reflect how managers are allocated in various asset classes. These managers oversee a combined $600b in assets.

The data should be viewed mostly from a contrarian perspective; that is, when equities fall in price, allocations to cash go higher and allocations to equities go lower as investors become bearish, setting up a buy signal. When prices rise, the opposite occurs, setting up a sell signal. We did a recap of this pattern in December 2014 (post).

Let's review the highlights from the past month.

Overall: Relative to history, fund managers are overweight equities and underweight bonds. Cash is neutral. Enlarge any image by clicking on it.

Within equities, the US is significantly underweight while Europe, Japan and emerging markets are all significantly overweight. 

A pure contrarian would overweight US equities relative to Europe, Japan and emerging markets, and overweight global bonds relative to a 60-30-10 basket. 

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - November

Summary: Global equities have risen 18% so far in 2017 and yet, until this month, fund managers have held significant amounts of cash and been, at best, only modestly bullish on equities. All of this has suggested lingering risk aversion.

That has now changed. Cash levels have fallen to the lowest level in 4 years. Allocations to global equities have risen to the highest level in 2-1/2 years. In most respects, investors are now bullish.

In the past 6 months, US equities have outperformed Europe by 10% and the rest the world by 3%. Despite this, fund managers remain underweight. US equities should outperform their global peers.

Fund managers are underweight global bonds, nearly to an extreme that has often marked a capitulation low in the past. Only 5% of fund managers believe global rates will be lower next year, a level at which yields have often fallen.

* * *

Among the various ways of measuring investor sentiment, the BAML survey of global fund managers is one of the better as the results reflect how managers are allocated in various asset classes. These managers oversee a combined $600b in assets.

The data should be viewed mostly from a contrarian perspective; that is, when equities fall in price, allocations to cash go higher and allocations to equities go lower as investors become bearish, setting up a buy signal. When prices rise, the opposite occurs, setting up a sell signal. We did a recap of this pattern in December 2014 (post).

Let's review the highlights from the past month.

Overall: Relative to history, fund managers are overweight equities and underweight bonds. Cash is now neutral. Enlarge any image by clicking on it.

Within equities, the US is significantly underweight while Europe, Japan and emerging markets are significantly overweight. 

A pure contrarian would overweight US equities relative to Europe, Japan and emerging markets, and overweight global bonds relative to a 60-30-10 basket. 

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - September

Summary: Global equities have risen 12% in the past 6 months and 17% in the past year, yet fund managers continue to hold significant amounts of cash, suggesting lingering risk aversion. They have become more bullish towards equities, but not excessively so with their hedging activity near a 10 month high.

Allocations to US equities dropped to their lowest level in 10 years (since November 2007) in September: this is when US equities usually outperform. In contrast, weightings towards Europe and emerging markets have jumped to levels that suggest these regions are likely to underperform on a relative basis. These weightings also suggest that Europe and/or emerging markets are likely to be the source for any global "risk off' event. Notably, the S&P has outperformed Europe's STOXX600 by 10% the past four months.

Fund managers are modestly underweight global bonds.

The US dollar has gone from overvalued a few months ago to the most undervalued in nearly 3 years. Fund managers had viewed the dollar as overvalued starting in November 2016; since then, the dollar has lost about 8%. Contrarians should be alert to a change in direction for the dollar.

* * *

Among the various ways of measuring investor sentiment, the BAML survey of global fund managers is one of the better as the results reflect how managers are allocated in various asset classes. These managers oversee a combined $600b in assets.

The data should be viewed mostly from a contrarian perspective; that is, when equities fall in price, allocations to cash go higher and allocations to equities go lower as investors become bearish, setting up a buy signal. When prices rise, the opposite occurs, setting up a sell signal. We did a recap of this pattern in December 2014 (post).

Let's review the highlights from the past month.

Overall: Relative to history, fund managers are very overweight cash and underweight bonds. Their equity allocation is modestly overweight. Enlarge any image by clicking on it.

Within equities, the US is significantly underweight while Europe is significantly overweight. 

A pure contrarian would overweight US equities relative to Europe and emerging markets, and overweight global bonds relative to a 60-30-10 basket. 

Interview With Financial Sense on Identifying the Next Bear Market

We were interviewed by Cris Sheridan of Financial Sense on August 24th. During the interview we discuss current market technicals, the macro-economic environment, the investor sentiment backdrop and the prospect for future equity returns. One theme of our discussion is what to look for ahead of a bear market in US equities. Another theme is how the current period of low volatility will likely resolve.

Our thanks to Cris for the opportunity to speak with him and to his editor for making these disparate thoughts seem cogent.

Listen here.

If you find this post to be valuable, consider visiting a few of our sponsors who have offers that might be relevant to you.

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - July

Summary: Global equities have risen 7% in the past 3 months and 16% in the past year, yet fund managers continue to hold significant amounts of cash, suggesting lingering doubts and fears. They have become more bullish towards equities, but not excessively so: less than half expect better profits and a better economy in the next 12 months.

Allocations to US equities dropped to nearly their lowest level since November 2008 in July: this is when US equities usually outperform. In contrast, weightings towards Europe in particular have jumped to levels that suggest this region is likely to underperform. These weightings also suggest that Europe is likely to be the source for any global "risk off' event. Notably, the S&P has outperformed the Europe's STOXX600 by 7% the past two months.

Fund managers remain stubbornly underweight global bonds. Current allocations have often marked a point where yields turn lower and bonds outperform equities.

For the first time in eight months, fund managers are neutral towards the dollar after having considered it overvalued since November.  During this time, the dollar has fallen 7%. A headwind to dollar appreciation has dissipated.

* * *

Among the various ways of measuring investor sentiment, the BAML survey of global fund managers is one of the better as the results reflect how managers are allocated in various asset classes. These managers oversee a combined $600b in assets.

The data should be viewed mostly from a contrarian perspective; that is, when equities fall in price, allocations to cash go higher and allocations to equities go lower as investors become bearish, setting up a buy signal. When prices rise, the opposite occurs, setting up a sell signal. We did a recap of this pattern in December 2014 (post).

Let's review the highlights from the past month.

Overall: Relative to history, fund managers are very overweight cash and very underweight bonds. Their equity allocation is modestly overweight. Enlarge any image by clicking on it.

Within equities, the US is significantly underweight while Europe is significantly overweight. 

A pure contrarian would overweight US equities relative to Europe and emerging markets, and overweight global bonds relative to a 60-30-10 basket. 

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - June

Summary: Global equities have risen 5% in the past 3 months and nearly 20% in the past year, yet fund managers continue to hold significant amounts of cash, suggesting lingering doubts and fears. They have become more bullish towards equities, but not excessively so: less than half expect better profits and a better economy in the next 12 months.

Allocations to US equities dropped to their lowest level in 9 years in April and remain nearly this low in June: this is when US equities typically start to outperform. In contrast, weighting towards Europe and emerging markets have jumped to levels that suggest these regions are likely to underperform.

Fund managers remain stubbornly underweight global bonds. Current allocations have often marked a point where yields turn lower and bonds outperform equities.

For the first time in seven months, the dollar is no longer considered highly overvalued. Since November, the dollar has fallen 4%. A headwind to dollar appreciation has dissipated.

* * *

Among the various ways of measuring investor sentiment, the BAML survey of global fund managers is one of the better as the results reflect how managers are allocated in various asset classes. These managers oversee a combined $600b in assets.

The data should be viewed mostly from a contrarian perspective; that is, when equities fall in price, allocations to cash go higher and allocations to equities go lower as investors become bearish, setting up a buy signal. When prices rise, the opposite occurs, setting up a sell signal. We did a recap of this pattern in December 2014 (post).

Let's review the highlights from the past month.

Overall: Relative to history, managers are overweight equities and cash and very underweight bonds. Enlarge any image by clicking on it.

Within equities, the US is significantly underweight while Europe is significantly overweight. 

A pure contrarian would overweight US equities relative to Europe and emerging markets, and overweight global bonds relative to a 60-30-10 basket. 

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - May

Summary: A tailwind for the rally since February 2016 has been the bearish positioning of investors, with fund managers persistently shunning equities in exchange for holding cash.

Fund managers have become more bullish, but not excessively so. Profit expectations are near a 7-year high and global economic growth expectations are near a 2-year high.  However, cash balances at funds also remains high, suggesting lingering doubts and fears.

Of note is that allocations to US equities dropped to their lowest level in 9 years in April and remain equally low in May: this is when US equities typically start to outperform. In contrast, weighting towards Europe and emerging markets have jumped to levels that strongly suggest these regions are likely to underperform.

Fund managers remain stubbornly underweight global bonds due to heightened growth and inflation expectations. Current allocations have often marked a point of capitulation where yields reverse lower and bonds outperform equities.

For the sixth month in a row, the dollar is considered the most overvalued in the past 11 years. Under similar conditions, the dollar has fallen in value in the month(s) ahead.

* * *

Among the various ways of measuring investor sentiment, the BAML survey of global fund managers is one of the better as the results reflect how managers are allocated in various asset classes. These managers oversee a combined $600b in assets.

The data should be viewed mostly from a contrarian perspective; that is, when equities fall in price, allocations to cash go higher and allocations to equities go lower as investors become bearish, setting up a buy signal. When prices rise, the opposite occurs, setting up a sell signal. We did a recap of this pattern in December 2014 (post).

Let's review the highlights from the past month.

Overall: Relative to history, managers are overweight equities and very underweight bonds. Cash weightings are neutral. Within equities, the US is significantly underweight while Europe and emerging markets are significantly overweight. A pure contrarian would overweight US equities relative to Europe and emerging markets, and overweight global bonds relative to a 60-30-10 basket. Enlarge any image by clicking on it.

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - April

Summary: A tailwind for the rally since February 2016 has been the bearish positioning of investors, with fund managers persistently shunning equities in exchange for holding cash.

Fund managers have become more bullish, but not excessively so. Profit expectations are near a 7-year high and global economic growth expectations are near a 2-year high.  However, cash balances at funds remains high, suggesting lingering doubts and fears.

Of note is that allocations to US equities dropped to their lowest level in 9 years in April: this is when US equities typically start to outperform. In contrast, weighting towards Europe and emerging markets have jumped to levels that strongly suggest these regions are likely to underperform.

Fund managers remain stubbornly underweight global bonds due to heightened growth and inflation expectations. Current allocations have often marked a point of capitulation where yields reverse lower and bonds outperform equities.

For the fifth month in a row, the dollar is considered the most overvalued in the past 11 years. Under similar conditions, the dollar has fallen in value in the month(s) ahead.

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Among the various ways of measuring investor sentiment, the BAML survey of global fund managers is one of the better as the results reflect how managers are allocated in various asset classes. These managers oversee a combined $600b in assets.

The data should be viewed mostly from a contrarian perspective; that is, when equities fall in price, allocations to cash go higher and allocations to equities go lower as investors become bearish, setting up a buy signal. When prices rise, the opposite occurs, setting up a sell signal. We did a recap of this pattern in December 2014 (post).

Let's review the highlights from the past month.

Cash: Fund managers' cash levels dropped from 5.8% in October 2016 to 4.9% in April. Recall that 5.8% was the highest cash level since November 2001. Cash remained above 5% for almost all of 2016, the longest stretch of elevated cash in the survey's history. Some of the tailwind behind the rally is now gone but cash is still supportive of further gains in equities. A significant further drop in cash in the month ahead, however, would be bearish. Enlarge any image by clicking on it.