Saturday, March 30, 2019

Weekly Market Summary

Summary:  SPX and NDX are now just 3-4% from their September all-time high (ATH). On an equal-weigh basis, NDX has already made a new ATH.

This has been one of the 10 best ever starts to a year; over the past 60 years, similar fast starts have consistently led to continued gains in the months ahead.  That doesn't mean stocks will not have an interim setback. But if past is prologue, SPX is likely to gain enough to make a new ATH in 2019.

Macro data weakened in the past half year. A conservative investor with a shorter time horizon wouldn't be wrong to reduce their equity holdings into strength. But the panic over weakening macro is likely to abate and, with fund managers' risk exposure falling to a 2-1/2 year low this month, sentiment supports a continued rise in equities.

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Since Christmas Eve, SPX is up 21%, NDX 24% and RUT 23%. Europe and emerging markets are each up 14% (table from Enlarge any chart by clicking on it.