Monday, June 5, 2017

Today Is Not Just Like 1987

Summary:  Today is not just like 1987.

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In 1987, the stock market crashed.

In 2013, the stock market was just like 1987.

In 2014, the stock market was just like 1987.

In 2016, the stock market was just like 1987.

Today, the stock market is just like 1987.

Today is not just like 1987.

Pointing out that today is not like 1987 isn't a signal that "everyone is bullish." It's a statement that today is, objectively, not like 1987. Neither were 2013, 2014 or 2016.

It's also not just like 1929.

Data sources: NYT (1), Zero Hedge (2, 3), Bloomberg (4), Nautilus Research (5), Reuters (6) and Ryan Detrick (7).

The 1929 chart (7) has many versions, dating from 2009, 2010 and 2014. It's not an original idea. One from Tom McClellan (who in turns credits the chart to Tom DeMark) shows a potential repeat of the 1929 crash starting in 2014 and can be found on Business Insider here under an article titled "1929 Market Crash Chart is Garbage." In the event, the S&P has since gained 70%. Two smart articles on this chart can be found here (from Ryan Detrick) and here (from Josh Brown).

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