Friday, March 8, 2013

Placing the Current Rally In 10 Year Perspective

The chart below looks at rallies in SPX over the past 10 years that have lasted more than 3 months and have risen more than 5% (it's a zig zag chart; every change in direction requires a >5% move). Every correction (red shaded areas) is also at least 5%, and we've made the width of the shading equal to 3 months.
  1. The current rally has now risen 16% (chart has not been updated since Wednesday) over nearly 4 months.  
  2. This places the current rally now 1 percentage point shy of the average gain and 2 percentage points shy of the gain from the rally that kicked-off 2012. 
  3. Time-wise, the current advance is of average length (although some have been twice as long). It is longer than the one from early 2012.
  4. Most of the corrections have been 1-2 months in length before a 5% bounce.
Net, the current rally is hitting the average for length of time and gain. Bear in mind as well that today, with SPX's high at 1551, it is within 0.2%-1.5% of the expected resistance area (1555-1575) on the monthly charts. Read further here