Monday, February 4, 2013

Duration of Uptrends Since March 2009

Since the March 2009 low, there have been 8 discrete and completed uptrends. Some features:
  1. Median length of 12 weeks, mean duration of 12.4 weeks, minimum duration of 10 weeks, maximum duration of 16 weeks.
  2. 4 up weeks in a row is common. 6 has been a typical maximum. One was 7 weeks (2011). The current uptrend has completed 6 weeks.
  3. Within an uptrend, it is common to have 2-4 red weeks. Overall, about 70-80% are up weeks.
Importantly, after a long uptrend up more than 5 weeks, the down week is usually minor (within the low of the prior week) and there is always a higher high ahead. Strong trends do not end after a long streak of up weeks.

This first chart shows the 8 discrete uptrends of 10-16 weeks in duration since March 2009.

This second chart shows (in light green) the sequential number of up weeks; only one was 7 weeks long, most were about 4-5 weeks.