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Since Christmas Eve, SPX is up 19%, NDX 20% and RUT 25%. NDX, RUT and DJIA have each risen the past 9 weeks in a row (table from alphatrends.net). Enlarge any chart by clicking on it.
They are overweight cash by the highest amount since January 2009, the month before the bear market low.
Their global equity allocations are now the lowest in 2-1/2 years. This is a bearish extreme, similar to 2010 and 2016.
Their profit expectations are the most bearish in 10 years, and below levels which marked equity lows in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2016.
Their global macro growth expectations are the most pessimistic in 10 years, more than at the major equity bottoms in 2011 and 2016.
They view the US dollar as the most overvalued in 16 years, which has a very good track record of marking a turn to dollar weakness, a tailwind for US multi-nationals as well as ex-US equities.
Their global bond allocations are the highest since the Brexit vote in June 2016,US equity allocations are at a 9 month low. European equity allocations are coming off a 6-1/2 year low in January. Emerging markets have become the consensus long.
Within equities, the emerging markets are overweight while Europe, in particular, is underweight. The US is neutral.
A pure contrarian would overweight equities relative to cash, and European equities relative to emerging markets.