Showing posts with label About. Show all posts
Showing posts with label About. Show all posts

Thursday, January 23, 2020

Advisor Perspectives' Top 25 Venerated Voices for 2019

Many thanks to Advisor Perspectives for including the Fat Pitch in its list of the Top 25 Venerated Voices for 2019, placing ahead of much larger firms such as PIMCO, BlackRock, Northern Trust, AllianceBernstein and Franklin Templeton.

Advisor Perspectives publishes economic and market commentaries submitted by fund companies, advisors and independent research firms. In 2019, over 1,900 such commentaries were published and made available through a daily newsletter, Research Perspectives, which the company emails to its subscribers. The company's website currently attracts over 180,000 unique visitors per month, virtually all of them financial advisors serving high- and ultra-high net worth individuals.

The full list is here.



Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Interview with Financial Sense on Running for Political Office and the Macro Outlook for 2020

I was interviewed by Cris Sheridan of Financial Sense on December 17th.

This was a two-part interview; in the first half, I discuss my current run for political office and the challenges facing small cities; in the second half, I discuss the macro and equity outlook for 2020. If you want to skip around, here are some guideposts:
  • 2 minute mark: my reasons for running for political office
  • 11 minute mark: the challenges facing small towns like ours in the next decade
  • 24 minute mark: the US macro outlook for 2020, with a focus on housing and other leading indicators
  • 32 minute mark: what macro and things like investor sentiment mean for the stock market in the coming year
My thanks to Cris for the opportunity to speak with him and to his editor for making these disparate thoughts seem cogent.

Listen here.



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Friday, November 22, 2019

Some Personal News

Update from March 4, 2020:

We won!


__________________

Original post on November 22, 2019:

I live in a town across the Golden Gate Bridge called Mill Valley. My wife and I moved here in 1999 with our two small children who were 4 and 1 years old at the time. It was near the end of the dot.com bubble. We were both consultants living in Silicon Valley and experienced this period up close.

I told my wife that I thought we were buying our house at the top of the market. She turned to me and said: "We are not buying a house, we are buying a home. This is where we raise our children. This is where we make our life."

As usual, she was right. I coached Little League and soccer for 10 years. My kids both ran the Dipsea Race every year. My son became an Eagle Scout. We all volunteered for our local library. Both kids started kindergarten here and graduated from the local high school, all public. They've now moved away. They're adults.

Outside of work and writing The Fat Pitch, I have run a 501(c) benefiting our library and chaired our town's Planning Commission. We love this town, we want to make it the best it can be, we will never leave. We believe in action, not words. We don't just talk, we do.

In September, I wrote a piece on the US economy and then went on a trip overseas for the rest of the month. When I returned, I started a campaign to run for elected office on our town's City Council. I met with every living former mayor, explained who I was and what I wanted to accomplish, and was endorsed by all, 19 in total. I am doing the same with as many other community leaders as I can and if they are in a position to endorse a candidate, then they have endorsed me. I am extremely grateful and humbled by everyone's support and encouragement. This feels right. I'm excited.

This has been time consuming, but I can't think of anything more important. I sat with an owner of an vital and iconic shop in downtown Mill Valley this week, a person raised here, retired here and who has over the past several decades met with every future mayor. He grilled me on housing, finances, traffic, human resources and every other topic of importance. 90 minutes went by like it was 5. It was thrilling, and I once again learned many things I didn't know the day before.

I have never run for public office. I never thought this is where life would lead me. I'm 56 years old, I have lived here for 20 years, I have been deeply involved in my community and I feel like I can make a difference. I don't have an answer for everything, there's a lot I don't know, but I will listen, I will ask questions, I will study, I will act with integrity and honesty, I will give this my every effort and I will try to do the right thing.

I have put a lot of effort into writing The Fat Pitch. I have wanted it to be the best source of financial and economic analysis that I could create. I wanted to help anyone willing to read it to learn and question and think and hopefully improve. It did all of those things for me. I don't believe in half measures, so I haven't written in a while. When I can commit the needed time, I will start writing again. I miss it, I'm committed to it and I will return to it.

If you are reading this and happen to live in Mill Valley, please get in touch. If you know someone here, spread the word. I am trying to run a different type of campaign, one where thousands of mailers and hundreds of lawn signs are replaced by email, phone calls, meetings at coffee shops and by my feet walking in neighborhoods.  I want every voter to have met me, read about me or to have heard about me from a trusted friend. I don't want a vote based on a lawn sign or a piece of mail. That is all landfill. The recent fires and power shutdown in California are a timely reminder that we need to change the way we do things, and it starts with something as simple as a local election. It starts now.

You can read more here: https://urbancarmel.com/


Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Advisors Perspectives: The Top 25 Venerated Voices for 1Q 2019

Many thanks to Advisor Perspectives for including the Fat Pitch in its list of the Top 25 Venerated Voices for 1Q 2019, placing ahead of much larger firms such as Invesco, Raymond James, BlackRock, Northern Trust, Pimco and AllianceBernstein. 

Advisor Perspectives’ website currently attracts over 150,000 unique visitors per month, virtually all of them financial advisors serving high- and ultra-high net worth individuals. The full list is here.



Thursday, December 13, 2018

Market Watch: Top 50 Finance Twitter Accounts for Investors to Follow in 2019

Many thanks to the people at MarketWatch for including us on their list of the Top 50 Finance Twitter Accounts for Investors to Follow in 2019. The full list is here.


Friday, July 20, 2018

The Most Useful Accounts For Finance Twitter: 2018

This week, Bloomberg announced that it is launching a Twitter feed that is optimized for trading, a "real-time feed of curated Twitter data, so that enterprise clients can incorporate the most financially relevant content into their trading algorithms." Read their announcement here.

“Our customers tell us that Twitter data is a vital part of their information-driven trading strategies, helping them uncover early trends and changes in sentiment,” said Tony McManus, Bloomberg Enterprise Data CIO.

“People come to Twitter for breaking news, and this new, real-time Twitter data feed gives finance professionals an increased ability to find meaningful and relevant news with the speed, quality, and accuracy they expect from Bloomberg,” said Bruce Falck, Twitter’s Revenue Product Lead.

If you want to create your own feed of the most useful financial content on Twitter, Jason Goepfert of Sentimentrader has created a list of the 200 most useful accounts (read further here). His list uses data from SparkToro that measures "engagement", i.e., accounts on the most lists whose content generates the most likes, retweets, comments and shares, since these are "more influential, get more visibility, and have more impact."

Here are the top 50, which includes professional traders and investors, financial advisors, fund managers, financial journalists, securities analysts and major news publications.


Wednesday, February 21, 2018

How We Work. And A Thank You To Everyone Who Contributes

Our mantra has always been to 'read widely but form your own opinion.' Your investment decisions reflect your risk tolerance, your demographic and financial profile and your personality. Be well informed and take responsibility for the decisions you make.

This blog borrows heavily from those whose research we value. 30 years ago, analysts worked primarily in silos. The information technology age revolutionized the collection and dissemination of data. Work that took weeks can now be done in hours. Original research is quickly amplified, modified and personalized. The Fat Pitch would not exist if it were not for the generosity and intelligence of those around us, to all of which we owe enduring thanks.

We attribute every source. If they are mentioned in these pages, it is because we read their work every week and value their insights. Readers are recommended to go to these sources directly. We can only scratch the surface of their excellent analyses.

Data is no longer very unique. Almost any chart or table we have shown here can easily be found on-line from multiple sources. Original analyses certainly exist, but are rare; in almost every case, the author learned from others generous to share their work. This is exactly how the level of discourse becomes elevated over time.

30 years ago, data alone was an edge, but not any longer. We believe (and hope) that interpretation of the data provides differentiation. We often reach a different conclusion than other analysts looking at the exact same data. How you collect, frame and interpret a pool of analyses is the difference between data and information.

Readers are welcome to copy, modify and personalize any data on this blog. Please retain the attribution to the original source, as we have done. This is a courtesy, not a legal requirement, as the analysis and representation (in a chart, table or graph) of data and facts is not subject to copyright laws, regardless of the effort required to present them (explained here). "Fair use" laws also allow for the reproduction of copyrighted material without the permission of the author for the purposes of commentary, criticism, scholarship, research or news reporting (explained here).

Charts and tables are building blocks. Make what you do with them value added. That makes all of us smarter (below from Ben Carlson).



A partial list of market-related websites we value can be found here.

Not everyone maintains a website, so two recommended Twitter Finance lists are here and here.


If you find this post to be valuable, consider visiting a few of our sponsors who have offers that might be relevant to you.

Saturday, July 8, 2017

Business Insider: The Most Important Finance People to Follow

Many thanks to the people at Business Insider for including us in their annual list of the Most Important Finance People to Follow for a fourth year. The full list is here.


Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Nominated: Best Financial Blog of 2016

We are truly honored to have been nominated as one of the best financial blogs of 2016. The award will be given out in New York City on March 30th as part of Stocktoberfest East. The ceremony will be hosted by Josh Brown and Howard Lindzon. More information can be found here.


Monday, December 12, 2016

Market Watch: Top 50 Twitter Accounts for Investors to Follow in 2017

Many thanks to the people at Market Watch for including us on their list of the Top 50 Twitter Accounts for Investors to Follow in 2017. The full list is here.



Monday, September 19, 2016

Live at Stocktoberfest on October 14

I'll be on a panel with Mark Dow, Jack Little and Eddy Elfenbein at Stocktoberfest in Coronado, CA on October 14. We'll be discussing global macro.

Mark is a former policy economist with the US Treasury and the IMF. Jack is the CEO of Mercenary Trader. The panel will be led by Eddy Elfenbein, editor of Crossing Wall Street.

Details are here.



Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Business Insider: Top Finance People to Follow

Many thanks to the people at Business Insider for including us in their annual list of the Top Finance People to Follow for a third year. The full list is here.




Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Live With Howard Lindzon, CEO of Stocktwits

I'll be speaking with Howard Lindzon, the CEO of Stocktwits, at Stocktoberfest on October 19 in Coronado, CA. I hope to see many of you there.

Warning: I follow presentations by PhDs in math and psychology who have authored entire books on investing.

Details are here.


Friday, November 14, 2014

Zero Hedge Might Be The Smartest Financial Blog Around

We've been blocked by Zero Hedge for 4 years. Anyone who invests knows that equity markets have a far higher probability of rising over time than they do of declining. Pointing out that basic fact to the good folks at Zero Hedge is not appreciated.

But Zero Hedge might be the smartest financial blog around. Why?

Because anyone who writes in finance knows that bearish articles are the most popular. By far. In our experience, a bearish article attracts at least 5 times as many readers as a bullish article. People like to read about The End of Days. No one wants to hear that things are right in the world, even if that's more likely.

Which makes Zero Hedge a brilliant business concept. Write only bearish articles that collect the highest number of hits. Sell advertising. Collect revenues.

If writing in finance is viewed as purely a business endeavor, their model makes the most economic sense. Well done.

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Interview with Financial Sense on Investor Asset Allocations and Equity Valuations

We were interviewed by Cris Sheridan of Financial Sense on September 24th. During the interview, we discuss investors' asset allocation, the macro environment, corporate valuations, liquidity and market technicals.

Our thanks to Cris for the opportunity to speak with him and to his editor for making these disparate thoughts seem cogent.

Listen here.



Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Quartz: The 22 Best Twitter Feeds You Should Follow

Many thanks to the people at Quartz for including us in their list of the 22 Best Twitter Feeds You Should Follow. The full list is here and includes heavy weights from BIS, the WSJ, Pew, The Economist, Reuters, Bloomberg, RBS, Credit Suisse, Dealogic, Business Insider and others. We're honored.


Monday, September 15, 2014

Business Insider: Top Finance People to Follow

Many thanks to the people at Business Insider for including us in their annual list of the Top Finance People to Follow for a second year. The full list is here.





Tuesday, January 1, 2013

What is the Fat Pitch?

In baseball, a fat pitch is a hittable ball. The odds are in your favor. You might miss, but it is a situation where you should take a swing of the bat. If you swing at good pitches and avoid the crappy ones, you improve your OBP. Once on base, it become a running game.

The stock market serves a lot of curve balls. Now and then comes a Fat Pitch, your odds-on opportunity to swing the bat. Get on base and then manage your base-runners.

Specifically, the Fat Pitch on this site refers to two situations.

Fat Pitch Market Summary: A Structured, Quantitative and Empirical Methodology

The objective of the Fat Pitch is to provide a structured, quantitative and empirical methodology for evaluating the state of the market. At any point in time, there are a variety of factors pulling on the market. We want to determine the relative importance of each factor in order to answer two questions:
  1. In which direction should we be investing in the market? 
  2. Are tailwinds behind this direction or are headwinds picking up?
Every Friday we publish a Weekly Market Summary with green, yellow and red lights on it. Green is good and red is bad. Everything on this site is in support of this market summary. The little tabs across the top of the site (trend, breadth, etc) mirror the different factors we follow to monitor the market. There is nothing here that doesn't fit with the methodology. Anytime you want to understand why a factor is red or green, click on the tab and read the accompanying analyses. To the fullest extent possible, we quantify and use empirics to determine the state of every factor.



Each factor discussed below.

Who is the author of this blog?

Everyone always wants to know how the story ends. So let's start there.

2014
If you would like to connect, please visit my LinkedIn profile.

2013
One of Business Insider's Top 100 People in Finance to Follow

Started this blog.

2010
Blocked by Zero Hedge.

2008
SPX at 1500. Said, "I will now spend more time trading." Learned many real time lessons on the way to 666.

1998
Moved back the US and founded consulting firm with two partners. Focus is on corporate and product strategy, especially for medical technology companies. Many large, listed companies are clients.