Showing posts with label Trend. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trend. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Small Caps Are Lagging. Investors Should Be More Concerned When They Lead

›
Summary :  SPX made a new all-time high (ATH) last week. DJIA and NDX were not far behind. And the broadest measure of the US stock market c...
Friday, November 16, 2018

Interview With Financial Sense on Macro Risks and The Market Correction

›
We were interviewed by Cris Sheridan of  Financial Sense  on November 12th. During the interview we discuss the macro-economic environment, ...
Wednesday, October 31, 2018

What Today's Trend Following Sell Signal Implies For The Months Ahead

›
Summary :  With SPX closing below its 10-month moving average, a sell signal for a popular trend following system triggered today. This syst...
Thursday, July 19, 2018

Emerging Markets Might Be Ready To Outperform

›
Summary :  Emerging markets equities have lagged in 2018 and throughout most of the last decade. Recent fund outflows have been extreme. Fun...
Friday, June 29, 2018

The Money Gods' Price For Achieving High Returns

›
Summary :  During their lifetime, most investors will likely endure another decade-long bear market like the ones in the 1970's and 2000...
Thursday, June 28, 2018

Interview on Real Vision Television

›
We were interviewed on Real Vision Television on May 29th. During the interview, we discuss our long term equity market view, the current ma...
Friday, May 25, 2018

Separating an Innocuous Correction From the Start of a Sinister Bear Market

›
Summary : It's true that equities fall before the start of most recessions. So why bother following the economy; why not just follow the...
Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Interview With Financial Sense on What To Look For Ahead of an Equity Market Peak

›
We were interviewed by Cris Sheridan of Financial Sense on March 13th. During the interview we discuss the macro-economic environment, the ...
Monday, February 12, 2018

After a 10% Drop, Will Equities "V Bounce" or Double Bottom?

›
Summary :  Corrections during bull markets have had a strong propensity to form a double bottom. Since 1980, only 16% of corrections have ha...
Friday, December 15, 2017

What To Expect From Equities In 2018

›
Summary :  US stocks will likely rise in 2018. By how much is anybody's guess: the standard deviation of annual returns is too wide to g...
Tuesday, November 28, 2017

A Cautionary Signal After Today's Strong Gain

›
Summary :  US indices closed at new all time highs on Tuesday. The gain was so strong that SPX closed 25% above its Bollinger Band width. Th...
Sunday, November 26, 2017

The Flattening Yield Curve Is Not A Threat to US Equities

›
Summary :  On its own, a flattening yield curve is not an imminent threat to US equities. Under similar circumstances over the past 40 years...
Friday, November 17, 2017

Path To Higher Yields In 2018 Unlikely To Be Straight Forward

›
Summary :  Macro economic data is good. It seems likely that rates will be higher in a year and that suggests treasury yields will also be h...
Monday, October 30, 2017

Investor Psychology, Part III: Seeking and Avoiding Risk At Exactly The Wrong Time

›
Summary :  Too often, investors sell their winners early and hold on to their losers in order to avoid taking a loss. Put another way, when ...
Friday, October 27, 2017

Investor Psychology, Part II: Following The Stock Market Is Bad For Your Returns

›
Summary :  The irony of equity investing is this: if you knew nothing about the stock market and did not follow any financial news, you have...
Sunday, October 22, 2017

Investor Psychology, Part I: Using Time, Scaling and Inflation to Frame Data (and Mislead Readers)

›
Summary :  How data is presented has a significant affect on the conclusion a reader will draw. Behavioral economists call this framing: &qu...
Tuesday, August 29, 2017

Interview With Financial Sense on Identifying the Next Bear Market

›
We were interviewed by Cris Sheridan of Financial Sense on August 24th. During the interview we discuss current market technicals, the macro...
Saturday, June 24, 2017

This Is What A Bubble Looks Like: Japan 1989 Edition

›
Summary : Take the US tech bubble of the 1990s, add the subsequent real estate bubble of the 2000s, multiply by two, and you have a good app...
Monday, June 5, 2017

Today Is Not Just Like 1987

›
Summary :  Today is not just like 1987. * * * In 1987, the stock market crashed.
Tuesday, May 23, 2017

The Worry About Indexing is Overblown

›
Summary :  Investors are clearly shifting away from actively managed funds to those based on index strategies. Only time will tell, but this...