May Macro Update: A Recession in 2018 Looks Increasingly Unlikely

Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.

The bond market agrees with the macro data. The yield curve has 'inverted' (10 year yields less than 2-year yields) ahead of every recession in the past 40 years (arrows). The lag between inversion and the start of the next recession has been long: at least a year and in several instances as long as 2-3 years. On this basis, the current expansion will likely last through 2018 at a minimum. Enlarge any image by clicking on it.

Trading The "Worst 6 Months" and the Presidential Cycle

Summary: There are two seasonal patterns currently in play for investors: the weak "mid-term election cycle" and the weak "summer months." Is the next half year a landmine for investors? The short answer is no.

Since 1982, the average mid-term year has gained 9%. In fact, mid-term years have been better than the supposedly awesome Year 3 of the presidential cycle more than half the time in the past 36 years.

The same point can be made about summer seasonality. While it's true that returns and the odds of gains are typically lower over the next six months than in winter, seasonality still favors longs. If you sell in May, you should expect to buy back higher in November.  For most investors, that's all that matters.

For swing traders, seasonal patterns suggest a general strategy to keep in mind. A swoon in May-June often sets up a bounce higher in July. Likewise, a swoon in August-September often sets up a bounce into October and the end of the year. That also corresponds with the mid-term cycle, which typically has a seasonal low point in September before a ramp into 4Q and into Year 3.

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There are two seasonal patterns currently in play for investors: the "mid-term election cycle" and the "summer months." Neither points to negative returns but both point to lower than average returns. There is also some nuance to the patterns that suggest a potential strategy for swing traders to keep in mind.

First, the mid-term election cycle: The second year of a president's term is generally considered the weakest of the four year cycle for stocks. To make matters worse, that seasonal weakness is most pronounced from now until October (red box; from BAML).

Weekly Market Summary

Summary:  US equities have been in a consolidation phase for most of 2018.  In the past, these consolidation periods have lasted a half year or longer - so this might continue into summer - although some measures of sentiment are already near a washout.  New highs are very likely to still lie ahead in 2018.

US corporates continue to do well. In 1Q18, they are likely to post sales growth of 9% and a new high in margins. Those profits are being reinvested for future growth.

Investors are worried about rising interest rates. They shouldn't be. Especially from current (low) levels, rising rates have coincided with rising equity prices. That has been the case as far back as the 1940s. The FOMC is very likely to raise rates again in June; since 1980, equities have peaked after the final rate hike.

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After rising two weeks in a row, US equities fell gain this week. April ends on Monday and barring a massive drop, the month will close higher for the first time since January (from Alphatrends.net). Enlarge any chart by clicking on it.

Weekly Market Summary

Summary:  Trade war rhetoric is driving US equities. This week, for the third time in the past month, the start of a sustained rally was clobbered by administration threats. Conversely, every interim recovery has come on the heels of conciliatory language. Long story short, what happens next in the equity market is very much a function of which trade posture the administration adopts next. Longer term, it's unlikely much of the current rhetoric will make into actual policy as it suits no one's economic interests.

Volatility has shot up in the past two months. Remarkably, investors now view volatility as the "new safe haven" and a "dependable bet." To that end, speculators are now positioned net long Vix futures to a near record extent; in the past decade, that has reliably coincided with at least a near term top in volatility.

This past week, SPX closed below it's 200-dma for the first time in over 400 days. The end of prior long streaks have not coincided with the start of bear market since 1962. Returns after the end of these long streaks have been exceptionally strong.

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US equities gained three days in a row last week for the first time in a month but a massive gap down on Friday and further follow through selling turned the markets negative for the week and (mostly) for the year (from Alphatrends). Enlarge any chart by clicking on it.

April Macro Update: Markets Might Be Wobbly But The Economy Is Fine

Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.

The bond market agrees with the macro data. The yield curve has 'inverted' (10 year yields less than 2-year yields) ahead of every recession in the past 40 years (arrows). The lag between inversion and the start of the next recession has been long: at least a year and in several instances as long as 2-3 years. On this basis, the current expansion will likely last through 2018 at a minimum. Enlarge any image by clicking on it.