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A year ago, we wrote a post on why "Year 3 of The Presidential Cycle Is Unlikely To Go The Way Everyone Expects" (here). At the time, SPX had risen 10% in the prior two weeks. The consensus was firmly in the camp that this performance would continue. After all, since 1950, SPX has risen an average of 22% during this phase of the cycle. In the past 60 years, Year 3 has never provided a negative return.