Friday, January 11, 2013

Summation Index Climbs Higher


One of the main reasons to remain optimistic on the market is that breadth continues to expand.  Today, $NYSI (the McClellan Summation Index) closed above 700. As the chart below shows, when summation becomes oversold (below -500) and then climbs back above 500, market indices usually continue to climb higher. That is the current situation.

Investors Intelligence: Not Yet Hot

Investor Intelligence survey for this week shows increasing bullishness. The bulls minus bears (lower panel) is approaching 30, an area of two prior peaks in $SPX. Over 35 would be a cause for increased concern. Not yet.

Weekly Market Summary

This is the first post of a new weekly market summary.

Our overall view remains positive. Trend and breadth, the two most important factors, remain bullish. For the 7th week out of the last 8, a majority of indices and sectors closed week >13ema. This week: all 4 indices and 9 of 9 sectors as well $EEM, Euro 350, All World ex-US. Conversely, $TLT <13ema the last 7 weeks.

The main concern is sentiment; it's not hot, but getting warm.